Page 26 - the SyI Quarterly 8

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Can the fate of hostages be determined
Can the fate of hostages be determined

from proof-of-life video messages?
from proof-of-life video messages?

by Matthew Fields CSyP MSyI

While terrorist hostage-taking is uncommon, ideologically motivated
hostage-takers often provide a video demonstrating proof of control
and proof of life (POL). These videos establish that a hostage is alive at
the time the video was made, and hence provide valuable information
for families and governments charged with their safe recovery.

What they don’t reveal, however, is the likely fate of hostages. Theories
have been suggested that hostage-taking is a form of organised crime
where economic concessions are demanded from rational actors
requiring a benefit. While this may apply in many cases, this article
argues that each case and hostage-taking group differs, and variables
apply dependent on the political situation, the group dynamic and
evolving methodology, and the political ‘win’ current to the prevailing
conditions (e.g. civil war breakout).

There is limited research on POL videos and narrative exploration, which can inform thinking as
to whether hostage-takers are more inclined – through their behaviours and narrative to execute
hostages, or whether they are holding hostages to obtain political concessions to pursue, fund, and
finance their strategic attacks and initiatives.

Addressing the limited research in this area can help support our understanding of the terrorist group
dynamic, its strategic thinking, and the business model it is employing.

Furthermore, any hostage rescue operation can significantly increase the risk to the life of a kidnapped
hostage held by a terrorist group, so insights gained from analysing POL videos have the potential to
improve operational planning and save lives.

The Three Types of Hostage Taking

Firstly, it would be beneficial to establish the three types of hostage-taking

Hijacking – Hostages are held under duress but the main goal of the terrorists is something other than
killing the hostages, e.g. the Al-Qaeda-inspired 9/11 attacks, where planes were hijacked and flown into
iconic buildings.

Barricade-siege – Terrorists invade a building to kill or hold people hostage. This type of incident
inevitably provokes a quicker response from the authorities and results in a stand-off, e.g. the Bataclan
theatre siege where the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) inspired terrorists murdered 90
people and injured many more.

Kidnapping – Different to the first two categories in that it is normally a predetermined activity
involving the instigation of demands or concessions by the hostage-takers.
Killed or released?

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