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The major contemporary risks are individually
quite unlikely and may take decades to arise,
falling beyond typical political time scales, so
they have not been treated as priorities for
governments. Examples of plausible global
catastrophic risks put forward in a report by the
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at
the University of Cambridge [4] include:
• Tipping points in the natural order due to
climate change or mass biodiversity loss;
• Malicious or accidentally harmful use of
artificial intelligence;
• Malicious use of, or unintended consequences
from, advanced biotechnologies;
• Natural or engineered global pandemic; and
• Intentional, mis-calculated, accidental, or
terrorist-related use of nuclear weapons.
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the grave
weaknesses that remain within governmental
preparations to manage the distinct challenges
presented by such risks. The CSER report
authors argue that governments and other
actors in global governance must ‘throw off the
shackles of old ways of thinking and embrace a
complexity paradigm’, recommending a number of
adaptations including: Second, for those who are already engaged in
• Better modelling and analysis tools, drawing on security-focused work, it is hoped that the book
big and open data; will bring to light connections with other areas of
• Effective deliberative mechanisms that are theory and practice that may not previously have
collaborative and inclusive (e.g. conservation been given much consideration, and encourage
knowledge co-production with local and thinking and collaboration across professional,
indigenous communities); policy and academic disciplines.
• Transparency of approach to prevent
information hoarding (such as a nation’s Finally, there is a wish to inspire students to
late disclosure of a pandemic) and increase identify and consider possible career directions
government accountability (e.g. nations’ that may not previously have been obvious, and
commitments to Paris Agreement targets); position them to employ some of the information
• Adaptive policy responses that enable and ideas presented in the book as part of the
continuous learning; and future workforce.
• Adaptive system design.
In these ways, it is hoped that the book can actively
All these recommendations are as relevant contribute towards facilitating the flexible and
to individual security professionals and their networked approaches that are central to securing
professional bodies as they are to governments, a complex world.
intergovernmental organizations, multinational
corporations and other powerful actors on
the global stage. In the years to come, security [1] United Kingdom. Ministry of Defence, Global Strategic Trends: The
professionals will need to coordinate with a Future Starts Today. London: Ministry of Defence, 2018.
widening range of stakeholders and help their [2] United States. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2040: A
employers and clients navigate the challenges of More Contested World. Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council,
a world that will only become more complex and 2021.
uncertain. [3] A. Wakefield, Security and Crime: Converging Perspectives on a
Complex World. London: Sage, 2021.
There are three aspirations for the book and its [4] T. Pegram and J. Kreienkamp, Governing Complexity: Design
readership. First, it is intended to demystify the Principles for Improving the Governance of Global Catastrophic Risks.
meaning and nature of security for readers who London: University College London, 2019.
do not routinely identify with the concept, but have
interests or responsibilities that intersect with
some of the many issues presented.

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